The Future of Cooling · How it works

From a pixel to a priced opportunity.

How we measure every UK roof from free satellites and open data, and turn it into a ranked, costed map of where Emissiv’s coating matters most. The whole chain, in plain English.

The one-line version

We measure how reflective and how hot every roof is, then turn that into where the cooling coating is worth the most.

Emissiv’s product is a radiative-cooling coating. The number that decides where it matters most is a roof’s reflectance. So the tool that measures reflectance nationwide is not a side project. It is the demand-generation engine for the core business.

The output is a drop-in superset of the Google Solar API: the same per-roof geometry schema, plus reflectance, material and thermal, the layers it doesn’t carry.

01 · The insight

The metric the satellite reads is the metric the coating moves.

A radiative-cooling surface does two things: it reflects sunlight and it radiates heat to the sky. The first is governed by albedo (solar reflectance, 0 to 1) and that is exactly what a satellite can read. A dark roof near 0.10 albedo absorbs about 90% of the sun that hits it. That is both the problem (it bakes) and the opportunity (the coating has the most to give there). Find the dark roofs, and you have found the customers.

02 · The data

Every layer is free or open.

No imagery bought, nobody waited on. That is the unit economics: national coverage at near-zero variable cost.

LayerSourceWhat it givesCost
ImagerySentinel-2 (ESA), 10 m (visible/NIR; SWIR bands 20 m, resampled to 10 m), 5-day revisitthe pixels we read albedo fromfree
Cross-checksSentinel-1, Landsatindependent albedo sanity checksfree
Footprints + materialOS NGD (Ordnance Survey)authoritative per-building outline + roof materialfree
Building recordOS NGDUPRN, building use, construction year, floorsfree
GeometryEA LiDAR, 1 mroof pitch, orientation, height, formfree
Energy + coolingEPC / SBEM (GOV.UK), joined by UPRNA-G band, floor area, and per-building cooling demand + efficiencyfree
Planning + gridplanning.data.gov.uk, PVGIS, National Gridlisted/conservation/flood, irradiance, live carbonfree
03 · The calculation chain

Pixels in. A priced, qualified opportunity out.

Each step is simple physics or an authoritative lookup. Nothing is a black box.

Reflectance (albedo)

Sentinel-2 sees in narrow spectral bands. A narrowband-to-broadband (NTB) physics formula converts them to one solar reflectance, averaging only the pixels inside the roof footprint of the least-cloudy recent scene.

albedo = NTB(Sentinel-2 bands, in-footprint pixels) → 0 to 1, per-roof uncertainty about ±0.03 to ±0.07

Material

Where OS NGD has it (about 92% of roofs) we use its authoritative roof material; elsewhere a model trained on real labels is the fallback, with LiDAR geometry as a sanity constraint (a steep roof is not a flat membrane).

How much sun it absorbs

Pure physics for an opaque surface.

absorptance = 1 − albedo (a 0.10 roof absorbs 90%)

How hot it actually gets

Absorbing is only half the story. A roof also radiates heat back to the sky, set by thermal emittance (most roofs ~0.90, bare metal ~0.45). We solve the standard ASTM E1980 energy balance for the surface temperature, which gives a modelled peak temperature and a proper SRI (hot black roof = 0, cool white roof = 100). The payoff: a reflective-looking metal roof can run ~10°C hotter than its albedo suggests, because it cannot radiate.

(1 − albedo)·I = ε·σ·(T⁴ − T_sky⁴) + h·(T − T_air) absorbed sun = radiated to sky + lost to air SRI = (T_black − T) / (T_black − T_white) × 100

The cooling prize

For a dark roof, a 95%-reflective coating raises albedo by ΔA. The solar heat it stops absorbing is robust physics that applies to every roof; a slice of it converts to money and carbon for cooled buildings. How firmly we ground that cooling demand follows a three-tier ladder, exactly mirroring the material ladder (authoritative → published benchmark → unknown): we use the building’s own EPC cooling figure where it exists, fall back to a published cooling benchmark for its building type where the use implies cooling, and otherwise claim no pounds, only the physics.

heat rejected (kWh/yr) = (0.95 − albedo) × G × Area G = per-roof: city PVGIS GHI × sky-view cooling load cut = f × ( ΔR × G + Δε × L × s ) × Area reflectance + emittance; f = Uroof/ho; L ≈ 440; s = sky-view (1 flat) cost saved (£/yr) = cooling load cut ÷ SSEER × £0.26 cooled stock; capped at EPC cooling, else a building-type benchmark CO₂ avoided (kg/yr) = cooling elec saved × live grid carbon
Measured vs modelled, on this line

Everything down to heat rejected is firm: ΔA and area are measured per roof, and (0.95 − albedo) × G × Area is physics that holds for every roof, cooled or not. G is this roof’s own annual sun, not a flat 1000: the live per-city horizontal irradiation (PVGIS, ~910 Glasgow to ~1140 London) × a sky-view factor from the 1 m LiDAR DSM that accounts for overshadowing by taller neighbours, which also damps the longwave term (a shaded roof sees less cold sky). The cost line is grounded per building, not a borrowed coefficient: the cooling saving is bounded by that building’s own EPC cooling demand (the SBEM-modelled kWh/m² cooling × floor area) and converted at its own EPC cooling efficiency (SSEER), so an uncooled building correctly saves nothing. The cooling cut has two physical terms (the ASTM sol-air balance): a daylight reflectance term (ΔR × G) and a 24/7 emittance term (Δε × L) for the heat the coating radiates to the sky. Emittance is the core lever on low-emittance bare metal (Δε ≈ 0.5, often a fifth to a third of the saving) and a rounding error on already-high-emittance non-metal roofs (Δε ≈ 0.05, a couple of percent). The modelled factors are f = Uroof/ho, the fraction of the surface effect that reaches the conditioned space (~1–3%, because an insulated roof already blocks most of it; using surface heat directly would overstate the indoor effect ~50–100×, Synnefa/Akbari 2007), tiered by construction age; and L ≈ 440 kWh/m²/yr, the UK all-sky annual longwave sky-cooling energy (ASHRAE clear-sky ~63 W/m² derated for cloud), our most uncertain input. We then cap the result at the building’s measured cooling electricity. The £0.26/kWh is a representative UK price (around the Ofgem cap), dated rather than a noisy live spot price. This is a cooling-season figure: high emittance also loses a little heat in winter, and the UK is heating-dominated, so we report the cooling saving and the peak-temperature cut, not a net-annual claim. We lead with the physics; the pounds are the per-building modelled overlay, and zero where there is no cooling signal at all.

The three-tier cooling ladder. Only about 38% of roofs carry an EPC, so a measured cooling figure is the exception, not the rule. To avoid a blank for every other commercial roof, the cooling demand walks the same ladder as material does. Tier A · measured: the building’s own EPC/SBEM cooling electricity (best, used wherever present). Tier B · estimated: no EPC cooling, but OS NGD building use implies cooling (office, retail, commercial, health and the like), we apply a published UK cooling-intensity benchmark for that use class (BEES 2014-15, the BEIS Building Energy Efficiency Survey: e.g. offices ≈ 18, health ≈ 10, retail ≈ 8 kWh/m²/yr of cooling electricity) through the identical sol-air formula and cap, and the card badges it “estimated”, a distinct, lower-confidence tier, never shown as a certificate-backed figure. Tier C · physics only: no cooling signal, so we report the heat rejected and the peak-temperature cut and claim no pounds. A non-domestic EPC that was assessed and found to have no air-conditioning is a measured “no cooling” signal and stays in Tier C rather than being overwritten by a benchmark.

The building behind the roof

OS NGD gives each building its UPRN, which we use to join the EPC energy band, the use and the age. So a hot dark roof becomes “a retail building, built 1985, rated D”, which tells you whether it actually carries a cooling load. A physics target becomes a qualified commercial target.

building UPRN → EPC band + use + age + floors
04 · The value

Why it matters, commercially.

i

Precision demand generation

The ideal customer is a large, dark, hot, commercial roof. The engine ranks every one of them across a city or the country, for free, with no site visits. Cold outreach becomes a targeted map.

ii

The prize, quantified

Total dark-roof area is the addressable market; per building you get the energy, £ and CO₂, costed against the live grid, with listed and conservation buildings flagged so the targetable market is the real one.

iii

Proof at scale (MRV)

The same satellites revisit every few days, so reflectance change can be measured over time and impact verified remotely, the evidence funders and carbon markets need.

iv

National reach, near-zero cost

Free data in, a scalable pipeline, so one estate or the whole country costs roughly the same to survey.

05 · The moat

Material plus reflectance plus thermal is open white space.

Google owns geometry-for-solar in the UK with its Solar API. Nobody holds material, reflectance and thermal at national scale. We match Google’s geometry fields and add the layers that decide a cooling sale. The barrier is not the data, which is open. It is the physics pipeline and the honest, validated joins that turn it into a decision.

06 · The honest edges

What we measure, what we model, where we stop.

Every number is labelled measured or modelled, and regenerable from a script. That discipline is what makes it credible to the people writing cheques.

Per-roof material is indicative at 10 m; OS NGD authoritative data carries the weight where it exists.
Thermal verification of a single roof needs finer thermal than free 100 m satellite, the next rung for high-value sites.
Emittance for the existing stock is assigned by material, not measured; the coating’s own optics, though, are now characterised (opaque): 95% reflectance modelled at 0.95 and reference-paint-measured 300-1400 nm, plus 95% emittance, full cured-film spectrum in progress, so the coated-roof temperature is grounded physics.
The EPC band is one certificate where a building has several (e.g. flats), and the service covers England and Wales (Scotland is a separate register).
07 · Standards & methods

Every number traces to a named standard or dataset.

What each source is, and exactly how it enters the calculation. The point of leading with measured physics is that each step can be checked against its reference. Grouped below; tap a heading to open it, swipe each row sideways.

Sentinel-2 L2A + NTBLiang-style, S2 coefficients adapted in-house

ESA satellite (10 m) + narrowband-to-broadband albedo physics.

Feeds: the measured solar reflectance R every roof leads with. Assumes the Liang coefficients for S2 bands.

OS NGD

Ordnance Survey authoritative building data (~97% of GB).

Feeds: roof material, flat/pitched shape, height, UPRN, building use/age/floors. Shown without a hedge.

EA LiDAR 1 m DSM

Environment Agency surface-elevation model.

Feeds: roof pitch / aspect / form / roughness, and the surrounding building heights used for shading.

Zakšek et al. 2011

Sky-view-factor algorithm from a DSM.

Feeds: the per-roof sky-view factor (16 rays to 100 m) that damps both sun-in and heat-radiated-out. Base height = footprint median.

PVGISEU JRC

EU solar-radiation database (live API).

Feeds: the per-city annual horizontal sun (GHI), 914 (Glasgow) to 1158 (Cardiff) kWh/m²/yr, replacing a flat national average.

Open-Meteo

Free live weather API.

Feeds: the “now” surface temperature: live irradiance, air temperature and wind (wind drives convective cooling).

ASTM E1980

Solar Reflectance Index standard.

Feeds: the SRI and the modelled surface temperature, combining reflectance and emittance (not reflectance alone).

ASHRAE Fundamentalssol-air

Building heat-transfer reference.

Feeds: the cooling-load split: a daylight reflectance term (ΔR·G) + a 24/7 emittance term (Δε·L). Constants: longwave ≈63 W/m², hₒ≈17.

Synnefa, Santamouris & Akbari 2007

Peer-reviewed cool-roof study.

Feeds: the insulation factor f ≈ U/hₒ (~1–3%): only a small share of surface heat reaches the room below. Tiered by building age.

Measured coating opticslab / CRRC

Spectra of Emissiv’s coating.

Feeds: the 95% reflectance + 95% emittance the coated-roof maths uses, modelled opaque. Measured 300–1400 nm; full spectrum to come.

EPC / SBEMCEPC, RdSAP

GOV.UK Energy Performance certificates.

Feeds: energy band, floor area, and the per-building cooling demand (kWh/m²) + cooling efficiency (SSEER). England & Wales only.

CIBSE TM46 / BEES

UK building-energy benchmarks (BEIS BEES 2014-15, Tables A.1 + B.3).

Feeds: the use-class cooling estimate (tier B) where a building has no EPC cooling figure, badged “estimated from type”.

National Grid Carbon Intensity

Live UK grid-carbon API.

Feeds: converts cooling-electricity saved into CO₂ avoided at the current grid mix.

planning.data.gov.uk

Open planning register.

Feeds: listed / conservation / flood flags → coating eligibility.

The modelled assumptions, named. L ≈ 440 kWh/m²/yr (annual longwave sky-cooling) is our most uncertain input. f = U/hₒ is tiered by construction age as an insulation proxy. The sky-view factor scales both the solar and the longwave terms. Cooling £/CO₂ are a cooling-season figure: high emittance carries a minor winter heating penalty, and the UK is heating-dominated, so we do not claim a net-annual saving.

See it for yourself.

Explore the map → Read the full report
Emissiv · The Future of Cooling · measured, not asserted
Imagery: Unsplash · Roof data: OS NGD · EPC: GOV.UK Energy Performance of Buildings (OGL) · Contains OS data © Crown copyright